Mexico vs. England prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Round of 16]

Mexico will take on England in the round of 16 of the World Cup 2026 at Estadio Banorte on Sunday, starting at 8:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven World Cup 2026 model predicts England as the most likely winner of the Mexico vs. England game.

Part of our comprehensive World Cup coverage, this article offers further insights into Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

Mexico vs. England prediction: Who will win and advance to the Quarter-Finals?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's World Cup 2026 matchup between Mexico and England, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently indicates a 27.9% chance of Mexico winning, a 42.6% chance for England, and a 29.5% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 64.8% chance of staying under, with a 58.3% likelihood of at least one team keeping a clean sheet. In the win to nil market, England holds a 28.1% probability to win without conceding, with Mexico given an 18.0% chance.

For bettors looking to cover multiple potential outcomes, the most likely double chance result is England to win or draw at 72.1%.

A quick reminder: standard World Cup markets apply to 90 minutes of regulation play only, excluding extra time unless stated otherwise. This differs from sports like the NBA, where overtime is typically included.

England vs. Mexico odds

We have researched the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Mexico	England	Draw
+210	+155	+200

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
+160	-175

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mexico vs. England picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: England @ +155 via BetMGM
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ -175 via BetMGM
• Win to Nil: England @ +270 via BetMGM
• Double Chance: England or Draw @ -280 via FanDuel
• Both Teams To Score: No @ -125 via BetMGM

According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is England to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

As well as being the most likely winner of the game, the edge provided on England's odds also provide the best value for bettors.

Mexico vs. England: Correct score and BTTS predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-0 England win being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
Mexico 0-1 England	14.6%
Mexico 1-1 England	13.2%
Mexico 0-0 England	12.2%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 41.7% chance of both sides finding the net and a 58.3% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Mexico vs. England player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions

Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Sunday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in Mexico-England:

Mexico

• Raul Jimenez: 20.1% probability
• Julian Quinones: 16.9% probability
• Roberto Alvarado: 11.0% probability
• Gilberto Mora: 9.2% probability
• Luis Romo: 6.4% probability

England

• Harry Kane: 27.6% probability
• Jude Bellingham: 12.9% probability
• Bukayo Saka: 12.3% probability
• Anthony Gordon: 11.5% probability
• Declan Rice: 6.5% probability

Mexico vs. England game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's FIFA World Cup matchup between Mexico and England at Estadio Banorte is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Mexico vs. England
• Date: Sunday, July 5, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Estadio Banorte

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

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Conclusion

According to our computer model, Mexico has a 27.9% win probability on Sunday, England has a 42.6% win probability, and there is a 29.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.