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Read Article Tunisia vs. Japan prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Group Stage]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Tunisia vs Japan predictions for World Cup 2026 Sunday.
Tunisia and Japan are scheduled to meet in Group F of the World Cup 2026 at Estadio BBVA on Sunday, with kickoff at 12:00 AM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced World Cup 2026 model projects Japan as the most likely winner of the Tunisia vs. Japan game.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.
Tunisia vs. Japan prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's World Cup 2026 matchup between Tunisia and Japan, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently indicates an 11.9% chance of Tunisia winning, a 67.3% chance for Japan, and a 20.8% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 52.8% chance of staying under, with a 59.2% probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet. In the win to nil market, Japan holds a 44.4% probability to win without conceding, with Tunisia given a 7.1% chance.
For bettors looking to cover multiple outcomes, the most likely double chance result is Japan to win or draw at 88.1%.
Japan vs. Tunisia odds
We have sourced the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Tunisia | Japan | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +850 | -225 | +340 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| +104 | -125 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Tunisia vs. Japan picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: Tunisia @ +850 via DraftKings
- Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ +104 via FanDuel
- Win to Nil: Tunisia @ +900 via BetMGM
- Double Chance: Tunisia or Draw @ +180 via FanDuel
- Both Teams To Score: No @ -142 via FanDuel
According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Tunisia to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Although they are not the most likely winner of the match, the edge provided on Tunisia's odds provide the best value right now.
Tunisia vs. Japan: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-0 Japan win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tunisia 0-1 Japan | 14.7% |
| Tunisia 0-2 Japan | 14.1% |
| Tunisia 1-1 Japan | 9.6% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 40.8% chance of both sides finding the net and a 59.2% chance that at least one doesn’t.
Tunisia vs. Japan player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions
Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Sunday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in Tunisia-Japan:
Tunisia
- Elias Saad: 11.0% probability
- Anis Slimane: 8.8% probability
- Sebastian Tounekti: 8.5% probability
- Ali Abdi: 5.8% probability
- Hannibal : 5.2% probability
Japan
- Ayase Ueda: 34.6% probability
- Keito Nakamura: 22.5% probability
- Junya Ito: 21.3% probability
- Ritsu Doan: 19.4% probability
- Daichi Kamada: 13.7% probability
Tunisia vs. Japan game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's soccer World Cup action between Tunisia and Japan at Estadio BBVA is scheduled to commence at 12:00 AM ET.
- Who: Tunisia vs. Japan
- Date: Sunday, June 21, 2026
- Time: 12:00 AM ET/9:00PM PT
- Venue: Estadio BBVA
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
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Conclusion
According to our computer model, Tunisia has an 11.9% win probability on Sunday, Japan has a 67.3% win probability, and there is a 20.8% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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