France vs. Senegal prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Group Stage]

France will take on Senegal in Group I of the World Cup 2026 at MetLife Stadium on Tuesday, beginning at 3:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced World Cup 2026 model predicts France as the most likely winner of the France vs. Senegal game.

This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's match, including best bets and picks.

France vs. Senegal prediction: Who will win?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's World Cup 2026 game between France and Senegal, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model indicates a 64.4% chance of France winning, a 14.2% chance for Senegal, and a 21.4% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 50.6% chance of staying under, with a 54.9% chance of at least one team keeping a clean sheet. In the win to nil market, France holds a 39.9% probability to win without conceding, with Senegal given an 8.0% chance.

For bettors looking to cover multiple possibilities, the most likely double chance result is France to win or draw at 85.8%.

Senegal vs. France odds

We have sourced the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

France	Senegal	Draw
-200	+600	+350

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-118	+105

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

France vs. Senegal picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Senegal @ +600 via DraftKings
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +105 via BetMGM
• Win to Nil: Senegal @ +775 via BetMGM
• Double Chance: Senegal or Draw @ +160 via FanDuel
• Both Teams To Score: No @ -110 via DraftKings

According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Senegal to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

France vs. Senegal: Correct score and BTTS predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-0 France win being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
France 1-0 Senegal	13.4%
France 2-0 Senegal	12.7%
France 1-1 Senegal	10.1%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 45.1% chance of both sides finding the net and a 54.9% chance that at least one doesn’t.

France vs. Senegal player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions

Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Tuesday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in France-Senegal:

France

• Kylian Mbappe: 37.9% probability
• Ousmane Dembele: 24.4% probability
• Michael Olise: 24.1% probability
• Desire Doue: 23.0% probability
• Adrien Rabiot: 12.2% probability

Senegal

• Sadio Mane: 13.5% probability
• Nicolas Jackson: 12.4% probability
• Ismaila Sarr: 11.5% probability
• Pape Gueye: 8.5% probability
• Lamine Camara: 5.4% probability

France vs. Senegal game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's soccer World Cup matchup between France and Senegal at MetLife Stadium is scheduled to commence at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: France vs. Senegal
• Date: Tuesday, June 16, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Venue: MetLife Stadium

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

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Conclusion

According to our computer model, France has a 64.4% win probability on Tuesday, Senegal has a 14.2% win probability, and there is a 21.4% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.