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Read Article France vs. Senegal prediction revised after 2026 World Cup squads revealed
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get updated predictions and squad insights for the upcoming Senegal vs France FIFA World Cup game.
With official player lists now confirmed for the World Cup, our experts have calculated the updated win probabilities and betting picks for the Group I clash between Senegal and France at MetLife Stadium on Tuesday, June 16.
Dimers Pro users have access to the latest expert analysis below, where we build on our early Senegal-France predictions to detail the latest probabilities and best bets, and have a complete look at the official rosters for both nations.
Official World Cup squads: France and Senegal
Here are the confirmed rosters for both teams heading into the 2026 World Cup:
France
Goalkeepers: Mike Maignan (AC Milan), Robin Risser (Lens), Brice Samba (Rennes)
Defenders: Lucas Digne (Aston Villa), Malo Gusto (Chelsea), Lucas Hernández (Paris Saint-Germain), Theo Hernández (Al Hilal), Ibrahima Konaté (Liverpool), Jules Koundé (Barcelona), Maxence Lacroix (Crystal Palace), William Saliba (Arsenal), Dayot Upamecano (Bayern Munich)
Midfielders: N'Golo Kanté (Fenerbahçe), Manu Koné (AS Roma), Adrien Rabiot (AC Milan), Aurélien Tchouaméni (Real Madrid), Warren Zaïre-Emery (Paris Saint-Germain)
Forwards: Maghnes Akliouche (AS Monaco), Bradley Barcola (Paris Saint-Germain), Rayan Cherki (Manchester City), Ousmane Dembélé (Paris Saint-Germain), Désiré Doué (Paris Saint-Germain), Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace), Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid), Michael Olise (Bayern Munich), Marcus Thuram (Internazionale)
Manager: Didier Deschamps
Senegal
Goalkeepers: Édouard Mendy (Al Ahli), Mory Diaw (Le Havre AC), Yehvann Diouf (Nice)
Defenders: Krépin Diatta (AS Monaco), Antoine Mendy (Nice), Kalidou Koulibaly (Al Hilal), El Hadji Malick Diouf (West Ham United), Mamadou Sarr (Chelsea), Moussa Niakhaté (Lyon), Abdoulaye Seck (Maccabi Haifa), Ismail Jakobs (Galatasaray)
Midfielders: Idrissa Gana Gueye (Everton), Pape Gueye (Villarreal), Lamine Camara (AS Monaco), Habib Diarra (Sunderland), Pathé Ciss (Rayo Vallecano), Pape Matar Sarr (Tottenham Hotspur), Bara Sapoko Ndiaye (Bayern Munich)
Forwards: Sadio Mané (Al Nassr), Ismaïla Sarr (Crystal Palace), Iliman Ndiaye (Everton), Assane Diao (Como), Ibrahim Mbaye (Paris Saint-Germian), Nicolas Jackson (Chelsea), Bamba Dieng (Lorient), Cherif Ndiaye (Samsunspor)
Manager: Pape Thiaw
Updated France vs. Senegal predictions and picks including +650 play
Leveraging our latest data and the above roster updates, we have re-run the numbers on this clash. Here are the new insights:
- Win probabilities: France 64.0%, Senegal 13.9%, Draw 22.1%
- Both teams to score: Yes 42.4%, No 57.6%
- Total goals (2.5): Over 46.2%, Under 53.8%
- Win to nil: France 41.4%, Senegal 8.2%
- Double chance (win or draw): France 86.1%, Senegal 36.0%
- Most likely final score: 1-0 France win (14.6%)
These projections represent the highest probability outcomes based on the confirmed team sheets for France and Senegal.
France vs. Senegal picks and best bet
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Senegal | +650 |
| Total | Under 2.5 | -110 |
We'll be providing 2026 World Cup best bets all tournament long, with the early edge here being on Under 2.5 total goals.
Although they are not the most likely winner of the match, the edge on Senegal's odds provides the best long-term value right now.
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Senegal vs. France World Cup details
The FIFA World Cup matchup between France and Senegal is scheduled for June 16, 2026, with the two teams kicking off their campaigns in what is going to be the biggest ever World Cup.
- Teams: France vs. Senegal
- Tournament stage: Group I
- Date: Tuesday, June 16, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: MetLife Stadium
- More previews: Latest World Cup news
Conclusion: France vs. Senegal prediction
Our World Cup predictions for this matchup suggest that ** to win** is the most likely outcome, followed by to win, with to win as the least likely result.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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