Portugal vs. Spain prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Round of 16]

Portugal and Spain will meet in the round of 16 of the World Cup 2026 at AT&T Stadium on Monday, with kickoff at 3:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced World Cup 2026 model predicts Spain as the most likely winner of the Portugal vs. Spain game.

Part of our comprehensive World Cup coverage, this article offers a closer look at Monday's match, including best bets and picks.

Portugal vs. Spain prediction: Who will win and advance to the Quarter-Finals?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's World Cup 2026 matchup between Portugal and Spain, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model indicates a 25.1% chance of Portugal winning, a 50.0% chance for Spain, and a 24.9% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 50.1% chance of staying under, with a 52.4% chance that both teams find the net. In the win to nil market, Spain holds a 27.6% probability to win without conceding, with Portugal given a 13.1% chance.

For bettors looking to cover multiple potential outcomes, the most likely double chance result is a win for either Portugal or Spain at 75.1%.

Keep in mind that soccer markets are settled at the end of 90 minutes. Unlike NBA betting where overtime counts, extra time won't factor into these odds unless explicitly noted.

Spain vs. Portugal odds

We have researched the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Portugal	Spain	Draw
+300	+100	+255

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-130	+108

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Portugal vs. Spain picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Portugal @ +300 via FanDuel
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +108 via FanDuel
• Win to Nil: Spain @ +250 via BetMGM
• Double Chance: Portugal or Spain @ -330 via FanDuel
• Both Teams To Score: No @ +130 via FanDuel

According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Portugal to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Portugal vs. Spain: Correct score and BTTS predictions

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
Portugal 1-1 Spain	11.8%
Portugal 0-1 Spain	11.1%
Portugal 1-2 Spain	9.5%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 52.4% chance of both sides finding the net and a 47.6% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.

Portugal vs. Spain player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions

Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Monday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in Portugal-Spain:

Portugal

• Cristiano Ronaldo: 24.3% probability
• Joao Felix: 13.9% probability
• Bruno Fernandes: 13.4% probability
• Pedro Neto: 9.6% probability
• Joao Neves: 6.3% probability

Spain

• Mikel Oyarzabal: 30.7% probability
• Lamine Yamal: 25.7% probability
• Dani Olmo: 19.0% probability
• Alex Baena: 16.2% probability
• Rodri : 9.0% probability

Portugal vs. Spain game-day updates and essential details

Monday's soccer World Cup matchup between Portugal and Spain at AT&T Stadium is scheduled to start at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Portugal vs. Spain
• Date: Monday, July 6, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Venue: AT&T Stadium

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

DraftKings promo for Portugal vs. Spain

If you're looking to get money down on Portugal or Spain, we recommend DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users can bet $5 and receive $200 in bonus bets instantly.

Sports trading deal available for the soccer

To make the most of Monday's big day of sports, headlined by today's USMNT soccer, check out the latest details on the "DIMERS" code on Kalshi, with the latest bonus offer recently extended. Don't miss out!

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Portugal has a 25.1% win probability on Monday, Spain has a 50.0% win probability, and there is a 24.9% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.