Türkiye vs. United States prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Group Stage]

Turkey and United States will lock horns in Group D of the World Cup 2026 at SoFi Stadium on Thursday, with kickoff at 10:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven World Cup 2026 model predicts United States as the most likely winner of the Turkey vs. United States game.

Part of our comprehensive World Cup coverage, this article offers a closer look at Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.

Turkey vs. United States prediction: Who will win?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's World Cup 2026 game between Turkey and United States, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently suggests a 28.1% chance of Turkey winning, a 48.6% chance for United States, and a 23.3% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 59.2% chance of going over, with a 60.3% chance that both teams find the net. In the win to nil market, United States holds a 22.7% probability to win without conceding, with Türkiye given a 12.3% chance.

For bettors looking to cover multiple outcomes, the most likely double chance result is a win for either Turkey or United States at 76.7%.

United States vs. Türkiye odds

We have researched the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Turkey	United States	Draw
+245	+110	+290

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-145	+130

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Turkey vs. United States picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: United States @ +110 via BetMGM
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -145 via BetMGM
• Win to Nil: United States @ +290 via BetMGM
• Double Chance: Türkiye or United States @ -390 via FanDuel
• Both Teams To Score: Yes @ -150 via FanDuel

According to our best World Cup 2026 bets, the top play to make on this game is United States to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

As well as being the most likely winner of the game, the edge provided on United States odds also provide the best value for bettors.

Turkey vs. United States: Correct score and BTTS predictions

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
Türkiye 1-1 United States	10.7%
Türkiye 1-2 United States	9.5%
Türkiye 0-1 United States	8.2%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 60.3% chance of both Turkey and United States finding the net and a 39.7% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Turkey vs. United States player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions

Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Thursday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in Türkiye-United States:

Turkey

• Arda Guler: 17.9% probability
• Kenan Yildiz: 17.5% probability
• Oguz Aydin: 16.4% probability
• Baris Yilmaz: 14.8% probability
• Orkun Kokcu: 11.2% probability

United States

• Ricardo Pepi: 31.0% probability
• Giovanni Reyna: 20.1% probability
• Brenden Aaronson: 18.4% probability
• Timothy Weah: 17.0% probability
• Weston McKennie: 14.2% probability

Türkiye vs. United States game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's soccer World Cup action between Turkey and United States at SoFi Stadium is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Turkey vs. United States
• Date: Thursday, June 25, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: SoFi Stadium

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

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Conclusion

According to our computer model, Turkey has a 28.1% win probability on Thursday, United States has a 48.6% win probability, and there is a 23.3% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.