Oct 30, 2026
College basketball championship predictions and odds: Duke, Florida lead
Read Article 5 data-backed predictions for Villanova vs. Notre Dame season tipoff in Rome
First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
Check out five predictions from the Dimers model when the college basketball season tips off from Rome with Villanova vs. Notre Dame on Sunday morning.
The 2026-27 college basketball season tips off in Rome on Sunday morning with Villanova vs. Notre Dame at the Palazzo dello Sport at 9:30 AM ET, the first men's season opener ever played abroad.
Both teams feature heavily rebuilt rosters, and we're using our Dimers Pro college basketball predictions data to uncover any edge we can find, whether in a moneyline, spread or total bet, or by using our college basketball player projections.
Our Dimers Pro insights are the ultimate tool for college basketball betting this season, featuring predictions for every game, data-backed player props and trends, expanded player projections and more, covering both college basketball and NBA.
Villanova vs. Notre Dame tips off college basketball season in Rome
This is the first regular-season Division I basketball game played in Italy, staged in an 8,500-seat arena on a specially built court shipped to Rome.
Villanova HC Kevin Willard went 15-5 in Big East play in his first season, but the Wildcats lost to Utah State in the NCAA Tournament, and have higher expectations this year, although the Dimers model currently gives them just a 0.7% chance to win the national title.
Notre Dame went 13-18 overall and 4-14 in the ACC last season, then lost Markus Burton to the transfer portal. Micah Shrewsberry starts his fourth season after three losing campaigns, and outside expectations are low. Braeden Smith (Gonzaga), Ethan Roberts (Penn) and Big South Player of the Year Logan Duncomb (Winthrop) all join as transfers for a completely new-look team.
Based on our player projections and overall scoring outputs for Notre Dame's top players, it looks like the Irish's best path to an upset is their veteran backcourt making threes while Villanova's new pieces are still learning to play together.
Five predictions that will define Villanova vs. Notre Dame
1. Villanova wins but Notre Dame covers
We give Villanova a 75.6% chance to win, almost exactly what the -305 moneyline implies (75.3%). The closer battle is on the spread, where our projected 7-point margin sits just inside 7.5-point line, with a 50.8% probability of Notre Dame covering.
Bettors looking for a higher risk, higher payout in the same markets can consider middling the two bets, parlaying Villanova ML with Notre Dame +7.5, at odds around +247 on FanDuel.
2. The game stays under 147 points
We project 144 total points, 3 under the posted game total, with a 53.0% probability the game stays under.
Opening games tend to bring rusty shooting and lineups still figuring each other out, and an unfamiliar arena on a temporary court adds more unknown factors to the mix.
3. Tyler Perkins makes 3+ threes and leads the game
This is the biggest player prop edge on the board. We project Perkins for 2.9 made threes, most in the game, and give him a 55.8% chance to hit at least three. At +124, the market implies just 44.6%, an 11.2% edge that earns a High Edge tag.
Perkins shot a college career best 36.9% from the field last season, averaging 2.0 made threes on 5.4 attempts per game.
4. Kwame Evans Jr. flirts with a double-double
We project Kwame Evans for 13.3 points and a game-high 7.8 rebounds, which puts a double-double within reach in his Villanova debut. The Oregon transfer is the Wildcats' second-highest projected scorer and their clear top rebounder.
The matchup sets up well for him on the glass. We project Notre Dame for just 68 points, so expect plenty of missed shots to clean up, and our model doesn't see the Irish picking up many boards; Logan Duncomb (6.1) is the only Notre Dame player we project for more than 4 rebounds.
5. Ethan Roberts clears his points line in his Notre Dame debut
We project Penn transfer Ethan Roberts for 11.3 points, clear of his line of 10.5.
He arrives from Penn, where he averaged 16.9 points, and he joins Duncomb (12.3) and Braeden Shrewsberry (11.5) as part of the trio we expect to carry Notre Dame's scoring.
The shots should be there. Fellow transfer Braeden Smith has scored fewer than 8.5 points in 6 of his last 7 appearances, and our model predicts that to continue with Smith at just 4.5 points, so Roberts looks like the backcourt scorer the Irish will lean on.
Bet on college basketball this season with Dimers Pro
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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