UMBC vs. Marist prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 5, 2026

Marist is favored to beat UMBC at McCann Arena on Thursday (7:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' men's college basketball model.

Our UMBC vs. Marist prediction gives Marist a 59.1% chance of winning, but the latest odds suggest there's betting value on UMBC to cover at +3.5.

UMBC vs. Marist key predictions

• Predicted score: Marist 72-70 UMBC
• Marist win probability: 59.1%
• UMBC win probability: 40.9%
• UMBC +3.5 spread: 55.8% cover probability
• Over 141.5 points: 52.1% probability

Our men's college basketball predictions project each team's final score using offensive and defensive efficiency, recent performance, long-term trends, and matchup-specific factors.

We calculate win, spread, and total probabilities based on these projections and historical CBB scoring patterns, then compare them with the latest odds to find betting value.

UMBC vs. Marist odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets we track.

• UMBC moneyline: +140 (BetRivers)
• Marist moneyline: -156 (FanDuel)
• UMBC +3.5: -110 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Marist -3.5: -108 (BetRivers)
• Over 141.5 points: -108 (BetRivers)
• Under 141.5 points: -105 (BetMGM)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

UMBC vs. Marist pick: UMBC +3.5 (-110)

Our model makes Marist the likelier winner, but our best value bet is UMBC to cover the +3.5 spread at -110 on Caesars Sportsbook.

Those odds give UMBC an implied cover probability of 52.4%, while our model puts it at 55.8%.

That's a 3.4% edge, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets for this game.

Get every UMBC vs. Marist prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our UMBC vs. Marist predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets
• Player prop edges for points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers, steals, and blocks

UMBC vs. Marist game details

• Matchup: UMBC Retrievers vs. Marist Red Foxes
• Date: Thursday, November 5, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: McCann Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our men's college basketball models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.