Arkansas State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette prediction favors Louisiana-Lafayette to win in college football Week 5 [2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Arkansas State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Louisiana-Lafayette a 65.4% chance of defeating Arkansas State. Our predicted final score has Louisiana-Lafayette winning 27-22. According to our model, Arkansas State (+5.5) has a 50.5% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 48.5 points has a 55.0% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Arkansas State +5.5 (-108) / Louisiana-Lafayette -5.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Arkansas State +185, Louisiana-Lafayette -205
• Total: Over/Under 48.5 (-115/-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Arkansas State +5.5 @ -108 via BetRivers
• Moneyline: Arkansas State @ +185 via BetRivers
• Total: Over 48.5 @ -115 via bet365

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 48.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football matchup between Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State at Cajun Field at Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Arkansas State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
• Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Cajun Field at Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Louisiana-Lafayette, with a 65.4% win probability, will likely beat Arkansas State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.