Ball State vs. Liberty prediction favors Liberty to win in college football Week 3 [2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Ball State vs. Liberty, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Liberty an 87.0% chance of beating Ball State. Our predicted final score has Liberty winning 32-17. According to our model, Liberty (-14.5) has a 52.0% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 48.5 points has a 54.1% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Ball State +14.5 (-108) / Liberty -14.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Ball State +500, Liberty -625
• Total: Over/Under 48.5 (-114/-106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Liberty -14.5 @ -105 via bet365
• Moneyline: Liberty @ -625 via Caesars
• Total: Over 48.5 @ -114 via FanDuel

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 48.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football action between Liberty and Ball State at Williams Stadium is scheduled to begin at 4:00 PM ET.

• Who: Ball State vs. Liberty
• Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
• Time: 4:00 PM ET/1:00PM PT
• Venue: Williams Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Liberty, with an 87.0% win probability, will likely beat Ball State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.