Breaking down Lane Kiffin's return to Oxford as LSU visits Ole Miss

LSU Head coach Lane Kiffin is walking back into Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on Saturday, this time as the shot-caller of the visitors, rather than Ole Miss. 

Saturday night's LSU vs. Ole Miss showdown shapes up to be one of the early season's most hyped-up games and our college football predictions point to a number of betting angles.

Lane Kiffin prepares for rowdy return to Mississippi

Kiffin left Ole Miss in December, jumping to LSU after the Tigers fired Brian Kelly mid-season, and did so on the heels of a program-record 11-win regular season, the best in Ole Miss history. He ditched the Rebels before their College Football Playoff run, turning a six-year stretch of success into an unceremonious exit. 

After Ole Miss fans sent him off with boos, jeers and some choice hand gestures on his way out of Oxford, he's back in the building he left behind, just three weeks into the season, leading a Tigers team that opened 2-0 with wins over Clemson (51-10) and Louisiana Tech (45-14), entering as 3-point favorites.

Kiffin hasn't shied away from the moment. "There's gonna be so much attention, hatred, everything on me," he said this week, before confidently stating the pressure is "all on them." 

The stakes are already high enough as this marks the first time since 1962 that LSU and Ole Miss have met as top-10 teams, and our LSU vs. Mississippi predictions say it's going to be a close one.

LSU vs. Ole Miss breakdown

Dimers' full game predictions, built on 10,000 simulations, give LSU a 58% win probability against Ole Miss's 42%, projecting a 30-28 Tigers win

That's right in line with the 58.5-point total that we have at nearly a 50/50 split, drawing a fine line between a shootout or a defensive grind.

Against the market's -3 spread, Dimers shows a slight lean toward Ole Miss at 51.0%, though it doesn't identify enough of an edge there to appear in our best college football bets, while anything at -105 or better would be a play per our model.

Top players to watch in LSU vs. Ole Miss

Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss enters as one of the SEC's best stories.

He erased all questions about his upside as a starter in Week 4 last season, fittingly against LSU, and finished the year with 3,937 passing yards and 527 rushing yards, within striking distance of Jaxson Dart's single-season records.

Dimers gives him a 46.6% probability of scoring a touchdown at +129 odds, a value given his dual-threat profile in new OC John David Baker's quick-passing system.

On the other side, LSU TE Trey'Dez Green, a 6-foot-7, 240-pound former five-star recruit, topped LSU in touchdown catches last year with seven, putting up 104 yards and a touchdown in Week 2.

Dimers also finds an edge on him to score at 46.9% (+160), while his 2+ touchdown prop carries real longshot appeal at 11.3% and +1300 odds.

The model's highest-edge play on the board is on LSU RB Dilin Jones to score a pair of touchdowns for the second time this season, with a 10.1% edge at +400 odds.

Bet on college football in Week 3

Dimers Pro is your go-to resource for the college football season.

You can find picks, props and predictions for every single game this season via Dimers' CFB predictions.

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