Fresno State vs. San Jose State prediction favors Fresno State to win in college football Week 3 [2026]

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Fresno State vs. San Jose State, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Fresno State a 67.2% chance of defeating San Jose State. Our predicted final score has Fresno State winning 27-22. According to our model, San Jose State (+6.5) has a 54.3% chance of covering the spread, while the 49.5-point over/under has a 52.6% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Fresno State -6.5 (-105) / San Jose State +6.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Fresno State -230, San Jose State +200
• Total: Over/Under 49.5 (-110/-106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: San Jose State +6.5 @ -110 via FanDuel
• Moneyline: San Jose State @ +200 via BetRivers
• Total: Over 49.5 @ -110 via bet365

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is San Jose State +6.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football matchup between San Jose State and Fresno State at CEFCU Stadium is scheduled to begin at 11:00 PM ET.

• Who: Fresno State vs. San Jose State
• Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
• Time: 11:00 PM ET/8:00PM PT
• Venue: CEFCU Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Fresno State, with a 67.2% win probability, will likely beat San Jose State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.