Memphis vs. USF prediction favors Memphis to win in college football Week 11 [2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Memphis vs. USF, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Memphis a 58.7% chance of beating South Florida. Our predicted final score has Memphis winning 26-24. According to our model, South Florida (+3.5) has a 52.2% chance of covering the spread, while the 50.5-point over/under has a 50.6% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Memphis -3.5 (-104) / USF +3.5 (+100)
• Moneyline: Memphis -160, USF +156
• Total: Over/Under 50.5 (-102/-102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: South Florida +3.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: South Florida @ 39¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 50.5 @ 50¢ via Novig

According to our best college football bets, the top play to make on this game is South Florida to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Thursday's college football action between USF and Memphis at Raymond James Stadium is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Memphis vs. South Florida
• Date: Thursday, November 12, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT
• Venue: Raymond James Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Memphis, with a 58.7% win probability, will likely beat South Florida in Thursday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary college football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.