Merrimack vs. Tarleton State prediction: Why Tarleton State is favored to win in college football Week 3 [2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Merrimack vs. Tarleton State, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives Tarleton State a 98.7% chance of defeating Merrimack. Our predicted final score has Tarleton State winning 44-12. According to our model, Merrimack (+32.5) has a 50.3% chance of covering the spread, while the 58.5-point over/under has a 52.5% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Merrimack +32.5 (-110) / Tarleton State -32.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Merrimack , Tarleton State

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Under @ -113 via DraftKings

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is under 58.5 points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football game between Tarleton State and Merrimack at Memorial Stadium is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Merrimack vs. Tarleton State
• Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Memorial Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Tarleton State, with a 98.7% win probability, will likely beat Merrimack in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.