Michigan State vs. Michigan prediction: Why Michigan is favored to win in college football Week 10 [2026]

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Michigan State vs. Michigan, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives Michigan an 84.2% chance of beating Michigan State. Our predicted final score has Michigan winning 27-14. According to our model, Michigan State (+14.5) has a 53.9% chance of covering the spread, while the 39.5-point over/under has a 56.9% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Michigan State +14.5 (-111) / Michigan -14.5 (+104)
• Moneyline: Michigan State +506, Michigan -545
• Total: Over/Under 39.5 (-102/+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Michigan State +14.5 @ 53¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Michigan @ 85¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 39.5 @ 50¢ via Novig

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 39.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football game between Michigan and Michigan State at Michigan Stadium is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Michigan State vs. Michigan
• Date: Saturday, November 7, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30 PM PT
• Venue: Michigan Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Michigan, with an 84.2% win probability, will likely beat Michigan State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary college football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.