Sep 5, 2026
Liberty vs. James Madison prediction: James Madison favored to win in college football Week 1 [2026]
Read Article Texas State vs. Texas prediction: Why Texas is favored to win in college football Week 1 [2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Dimers' simulation model projects a 95.9% win probability for Texas at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.
Texas will take on Texas State in Week 1 college football action at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday, beginning at 3:30 PM ET.
Dimers' proven college football model projects Texas as the most likely winner in this Texas State vs. Texas prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks, backed by the same system that has dominated college football and NFL betting markets across multiple seasons.
Texas State vs. Texas prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Texas State vs. Texas, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives Texas a 95.9% chance of defeating Texas State. Our predicted final score has Texas winning 43-14.
According to our model, the bookies have got it right, and Texas State and Texas each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 60.5 points has a 59.0% chance of staying under.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: Texas State +29.5 (-110) / Texas -29.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Texas State +3000, Texas -8000
- Total: Over/Under 60.5 (-110/-110)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Texas -29.5 @ +100 via ESPN BET
- Moneyline: Texas State @ +3000 via ESPN BET
- Total: Under 60.5 @ -110 via BetMGM
According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 60.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & kickoff details
Saturday's college football matchup between Texas and Texas State at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium is scheduled to commence at 3:30 PM ET.
- Who: Texas State vs. Texas
- Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026
- Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30PM PT
- Venue: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Conclusion
We predict Texas, with a 95.9% win probability, will likely beat Texas State in Saturday's college football matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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