Texas State vs. Texas prediction: Why Texas is favored to win in college football Week 1 [2026]

Texas and Texas State will clash in Week 1 college football action at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday, with kickoff at 3:30 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced college football model projects Texas as the most likely winner in this Texas State vs. Texas prediction.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks, backed by the same system that has dominated college football and NFL betting markets across multiple seasons.

Texas State vs. Texas prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Texas State vs. Texas, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Texas a 96.0% chance of defeating Texas State. Our predicted final score has Texas winning 43-14.

According to our model, Texas State (+29.5) has a 50.5% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 61.5 points has a 59.4% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Texas State +29.5 (-108) / Texas -29.5 (+100)
• Moneyline: Texas State +3000, Texas -8000
• Total: Over/Under 61.5 (-105/-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Texas -29.5 @ +100 via ESPN BET
• Moneyline: Texas State @ +3000 via ESPN BET
• Total: Under 61.5 @ -110 via FanDuel

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 61.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football game between Texas and Texas State at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium is scheduled to start at 3:30 PM ET.

• Who: Texas State vs. Texas
• Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026
• Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30PM PT
• Venue: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

College football Week 1 promos

Make the most of Dimers' Texas State vs. Texas predictions by exploring the Underdog Fantasy offfer below

Conclusion

We predict Texas, with a 96.0% win probability, will likely beat Texas State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.