Why Ohio State vs. Texas should be a higher-scoring contest than last year's slugfest

Ohio State and Texas face off on Saturday night, September 12 as a true toss-up, but one thing is for certain: it shapes up to be a much more dramatic game than last year's matchup, which featured a total of just 21 points.

Dimers' college football predictions signal both a higher-scoring game script and college football betting value in Ohio State vs. Texas, a drastic contrast to last year's low-scoring slugfest.

A better rematch in Ohio State vs. Texas

Last year's meeting was the opposite of what most want to see when betting on and watching a college football matchup between two top-ranked teams.

No. 3 Ohio State beat No. 1 Texas 14-7 in a season-opening clash that turned into a defensive rock fight.

Buckeyes QB Julian Sayin, making his first career start, went just 13-of-20 for 126 yards, while hyped Longhorns QB Arch Manning was just as underwhelming, completing 17-of-30 for 170 yards with a touchdown and an interception.

Texas converted just 1-of-5 fourth downs and that loss in Week 1 ended up being the swing game in Texas' ultimate exclusion from the 2025 College Football Playoff.

What's changed for the Buckeyes and Longhorns in 2026

A year of development changes the picture entirely.

Sayin finished 2025 as a Heisman finalist, throwing for 3,610 yards and 32 touchdowns and Manning threw for 3,163 yards and 26 scores of his own.

Both offenses now have real skill-position firepower to match the passing game upside. Ohio State still has WR Jeremiah Smith, held to a combined seven catches for 46 yards across two meetings with Texas last season but a proven superstar with 1,200+ yards in back-to-back seasons and a Week 1 151-yard, two-touchdown performance.

Texas added Auburn transfer WR Cam Coleman, who caught three passes for 70 yards and two touchdowns in his Longhorns debut last week.

Best betting value in Ohio State vs. Texas

That buildup is exactly what's pushing Dimers' Over. Our model has the Over 49 hitting in 55.1% of simulations, a 3.8% edge at -105. Our projected final score of a 26-25 Texas victory goes over by 2 points.

Our best bet in Texas-Ohio State points to a high-scoring game.

You'll find an equally strong case for the over in our player props.

Sayin's 244.5 over passing yard number carries a 62.0% probability and his top target in Smith's projects for over 82.5 yards in 60.3% of simulations. RB Bo Jackson's 56.5 rushing yard prop is the highest of all, clearing with a 67.2% probability.

On the Texas side, Coleman gets a 58.7% probability to clear 59.5 receiving yards, and his anytime touchdown prop is set at 47.3% with a 3.8% edge, with fellow WR Ryan Wingo at a 66.5% probability to clear his 52.5-yard line.

Cam Coleman and Jeremiah Smith get betting value to clear their receiving lines on Saturday.

None of that guarantees this game turns into a track meet, but between two dramatically improved quarterbacks and a model that keeps finding value in game totals, the smart money is betting that Saturday night looks nothing like last year's 14-7 defensive grind.

More Week 2 college football betting

These insights are just a small sample of what's on the board in Week 2 for college football betting.

Access all of our best bets, predictions and more with our Dimers Pro football season pass, available at early bird pricing through the end of the weekend.