Leeds vs. Newcastle prediction, odds, Premier League picks [9/14/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Monday's Premier League match between Leeds and Newcastle, forming part of our Premier League predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently indicates a 42.8% chance of Leeds winning, a 32.3% chance for Newcastle, and a 24.9% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 54.1% chance of going over., with a 57.2% likelihood that both teams find the net.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Newcastle +213, Leeds +138
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-117/+117)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Leeds @ +138 via Novig
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -117 via Polymarket

According to our Premier League best bets, the top play to make on this game is Leeds to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Leeds 1-1 Newcastle (11.7% probability)
• Leeds 1-0 Newcastle (9%)
• Leeds 2-1 Newcastle (9%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 57.2% chance of both sides finding the net and a 42.8% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Monday's Premier League game between Leeds and Newcastle at Elland Road is scheduled to commence in the United States at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Leeds vs. Newcastle
• Date: Monday, September 14, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Venue: Elland Road

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Leeds has a 42.8% win probability on Monday, Newcastle has a 32.3% win probability, and there is a 24.9% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Premier League prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.