Athletic Bilbao vs. Atletico Madrid prediction, odds, La Liga picks [9/5/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's La Liga match between Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model indicates a 32.6% chance of Athletic Bilbao winning, a 40.9% chance for Atletico Madrid, and a 26.5% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 52.9% chance of staying under, with a 51.9% likelihood that both teams score.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Atletico Madrid +170, Athletic Bilbao +194
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-104/+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Atletico Madrid @ +170 via Novig
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +100 via Novig

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Atletico Madrid to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Atletico Madrid (12.6% probability)
• Athletic Bilbao 0-1 Atletico Madrid (10.6%)
• Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Atletico Madrid (9.2%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 51.9% chance of both sides finding the net and a 48.1% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's La Liga game between Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid is scheduled to start in the United States at 10:15 AM ET.

• Who: Athletic Bilbao vs. Atletico Madrid
• Date: Saturday, September 5, 2026
• Time: 10:15 AM ET/7:15AM PT

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Athletic Bilbao has a 32.6% win probability on Saturday, Atletico Madrid has a 40.9% win probability, and there is a 26.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.