Rayo Vallecano vs. Athletic Bilbao prediction, odds, La Liga picks [10/10/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's La Liga match between Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Bilbao, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently suggests a 35.2% chance of Rayo Vallecano winning, a 38.5% chance for Athletic Bilbao, and a 26.3% chance of a draw. Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 51.7% chance of staying under., with a 53.0% chance that both teams score.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Athletic Bilbao +170, Rayo Vallecano +178
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (+100/-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Athletic Bilbao @ +170 via Novig
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ -104 via Novig

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Athletic Bilbao to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Athletic Bilbao (12.5% probability)
• Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Athletic Bilbao (9.9%)
• Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Athletic Bilbao (9.4%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 53.0% chance of both sides finding the net and a 47.0% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's La Liga action between Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Bilbao at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas is scheduled to begin in the United States at 8:00 AM ET.

• Who: Rayo Vallecano vs. Athletic Bilbao
• Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
• Time: 8:00 AM ET/5:00AM PT
• Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Rayo Vallecano has a 35.2% win probability on Saturday, Athletic Bilbao has a 38.5% win probability, and there is a 26.3% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary La Liga prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.