Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano prediction, odds, La Liga picks [9/12/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's La Liga match between Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently suggests a 78.7% chance of Real Madrid winning, an 8.0% chance for Rayo Vallecano, and a 13.3% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 70.0% chance of going over., with a 52.1% chance that both teams find the net.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Rayo Vallecano +2400, Real Madrid -750
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-326/+308)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Rayo Vallecano @ +1011 via Novig
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +308 via Novig

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 2-0 Real Madrid win being the most probable:

• Real Madrid 2-0 Rayo Vallecano (10.6% probability)
• Real Madrid 3-0 Rayo Vallecano (9.9%)
• Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano (8.6%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 52.1% chance of both Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano finding the net and a 47.9% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's La Liga matchup between Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano is scheduled to start in the USA at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano
• Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Real Madrid has a 78.7% win probability on Saturday, Rayo Vallecano has an 8.0% win probability, and there is a 13.3% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary La Liga prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.