Real Sociedad vs. Atletico Madrid prediction, odds, La Liga picks [9/13/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's La Liga match between Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently indicates a 34.6% chance of Real Sociedad winning, a 40.3% chance for Atletico Madrid, and a 25.0% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 54.0% chance of going over., with a 57.4% chance that both teams score.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Atletico Madrid +144, Real Sociedad +212
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-144/+138)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Real Sociedad @ +212 via Polymarket
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +138 via Polymarket

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Real Sociedad 1-1 Atletico Madrid (11.8% probability)
• Real Sociedad 0-1 Atletico Madrid (8.7%)
• Real Sociedad 1-2 Atletico Madrid (8.7%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 57.4% chance of both sides finding the net and a 42.6% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Sunday's La Liga matchup between Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid at Anoeta is scheduled to commence in the USA at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Real Sociedad vs. Atletico Madrid
• Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Venue: Anoeta

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Real Sociedad has a 34.6% win probability on Sunday, Atletico Madrid has a 40.3% win probability, and there is a 25.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary La Liga prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.