Sevilla vs. Valencia prediction, odds, La Liga picks [9/11/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's La Liga match between Sevilla and Valencia, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model suggests a 44.9% chance of Sevilla winning, a 27.8% chance for Valencia, and a 27.3% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 57.7% chance of staying under, with a 52.7% probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Valencia +285, Sevilla +120
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (+144/-147)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Valencia @ +285 via Novig
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ +144 via Polymarket

According to our best La Liga bets, the top play to make on this game is Valencia to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Sevilla 1-1 Valencia (12.8% probability)
• Sevilla 1-0 Valencia (12.7%)
• Sevilla 0-1 Valencia (9.4%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 47.3% chance of both sides finding the net and a 52.7% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.

Game info & kickoff details

Friday's La Liga action between Sevilla and Valencia is scheduled to begin in the United States at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Sevilla vs. Valencia
• Date: Friday, September 11, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Sevilla has a 44.9% win probability on Friday, Valencia has a 27.8% win probability, and there is a 27.3% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.