Alaves vs. Atletico Madrid Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Alaves vs. Atletico Madrid La Liga match on October 10, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
LA LIGA
FINAL
ESP sport icon
LA LIGA
Atletico Madrid
2
1
Estadio Mendizorrotza
Alaves
Estadio Mendizorrotza
AlavesALA
Score Summary
Atletico MadridATM
L. Boye (pen.) (45')
Soccer ball icon
A. Perez (61')
Red Card icon
A. Grimaldo (33')
Soccer ball icon
C. Romero (87')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Alaves
    0.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Atletico Madrid
    100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    J. Cardoso (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
  2. 87'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by C. Romero, assisted by A. Baena
    2-1
  3. 79'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: A. Manas replaces D. Suarez
  4. 73'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: A. Sorloth replaces G. Simeone
  5. 71'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: V. Koski replaces N. Valentini
  6. 65'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: A. Guevara replaces L. Boye
  7. 64'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: C. Protesoni replaces A. Blanco
  8. 64'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Alaves: M. Diaz replaces T. Martinez
  9. 62'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: D. Hancko replaces R. Le Normand
  10. 61'
    Red Card
    A. Perez (Alaves) sent off with a straight red card
  11. 57'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: Lee Kang-In replaces P. Barrios
  12. 47'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: A. Baena replaces J. David
  13. 47'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Atl. Madrid: J. Alvarez replaces A. Lookman
  14. 45'
    Yellow Card
    A. Lookman (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
  15. 45'
    Yellow Card
    R. Le Normand (Atl. Madrid) cautioned
  16. 45'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Alaves by L. Boye (pen.)
    1-1
  17. 33'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Atl. Madrid by A. Grimaldo, assisted by J. David
    1-0

Alaves vs. Atletico Madrid: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Alaves vs. Atletico Madrid
  • Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
  • Time: 10:15 AM ET
  • Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Alaves 21¢, Atletico Madrid 54¢, draw +300
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (49¢/-105)

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Alaves: 24.6%
  • Atletico Madrid: 50.5%
  • Draw: 24.9%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Alaves 1-1 Atletico Madrid (11.8%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Alaves vs. Atletico Madrid? Prediction & correct score

Atletico Madrid is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 50.5%.

The most likely correct score is Alaves 1-1 Atletico Madrid.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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Responsible gambling

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