Alaves vs. Malaga prediction, odds, La Liga picks [10/23/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's La Liga match between Alaves and Malaga, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently suggests a 53.7% chance of Alaves winning, a 21.9% chance for Malaga, and a 24.5% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 51.5% chance of staying under., with a 50.1% probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Malaga +426, Alaves -125
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (+117/-121)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Malaga @ +426 via Novig
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ +117 via Novig

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Malaga to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-0 Alaves win being the most probable:

• Alaves 1-0 Malaga (12.1% probability)
• Alaves 1-1 Malaga (11.6%)
• Alaves 2-0 Malaga (10%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 49.9% chance of both sides finding the net and a 50.1% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Game info & kickoff details

Friday's La Liga action between Alaves and Malaga at Estadio Mendizorrotza is scheduled to start in the United States at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Alaves vs. Malaga
• Date: Friday, October 23, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00 PM PT
• Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Alaves has a 53.7% win probability on Friday, Malaga has a 21.9% win probability, and there is a 24.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary La Liga prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.