Toluca vs. Monterrey prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [11/7/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's Liga MX game between Toluca and Monterrey, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently indicates a 57.5% chance of Toluca winning, a 22.3% chance for Monterrey, and a 20.2% chance of a draw. Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 68.3% chance of going over., with a 65.2% probability that both teams find the net.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Monterrey +360, Toluca -165
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-240/+190)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Monterrey @ +360 via DraftKings
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -240 via DraftKings

According to our best Liga MX bets, the top play to make on this game is Monterrey to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-1 Toluca win being the most probable:

• Toluca 2-1 Monterrey (9.5% probability)
• Toluca 1-1 Monterrey (8.6%)
• Toluca 2-0 Monterrey (7.2%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 65.2% chance of both sides finding the net and a 34.8% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's Liga MX matchup between Toluca and Monterrey is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Toluca vs. Monterrey
• Date: Saturday, November 7, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Toluca has a 57.5% win probability on Saturday, Monterrey has a 22.3% win probability, and there is a 20.2% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Liga MX prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.