Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals prediction: St. Louis favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [6/22/2026]

The St. Louis Cardinals will square off with the Arizona Diamondbacks, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Busch Stadium on Monday, starting at 7:45 PM ET.

The Cardinals will send Andre Pallante (8-4, 3.76 ERA) to the mound, while the Diamondbacks will counter with Merrill Kelly (5-6, 5.81 ERA).

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Cardinals a slight edge with a 54.1% win probability over the Diamondbacks.

This article offers a closer look at Monday's Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals matchup, including best bets and picks.

Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's MLB matchup between the Diamondbacks and Cardinals, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Cardinals a 54.1% chance of beating the Diamondbacks.

According to our model, the Diamondbacks (+1.5) have a 62.5% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 53.8% chance of going over,.

Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals odds [6/22/2026]

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Diamondbacks	Cardinals
Run Line	+1.5 (-162)	-1.5 (+140)
Moneyline	+128	-144
Total	o8.5 (-112)	u8.5 (-103)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Run Line	Diamondbacks +1.5	-162
Moneyline	Diamondbacks	+128
Total	Over 8.5	-112

According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Diamondbacks to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals game-day updates and essential details

Monday's MLB action between the Cardinals and Diamondbacks at Busch Stadium is scheduled to begin at 7:45 PM ET.

• Who: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals
• Date: Monday, June 22, 2026
• Time: 7:45 PM ET/4:45PM PT
• Venue: Busch Stadium

Conclusion

We predict the Cardinals, with a 54.1% win probability, will likely beat the Diamondbacks in Monday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.