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Read Article Brewers vs. Rays prediction: Why Milwaukee is favored to win Game 5 of 2026 World Series
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 53.0% win probability for the Brewers at Tropicana Field.
The Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers are scheduled to meet in Game 5 of the World Series at Tropicana Field on Wednesday, starting at 8:00 PM ET.
Drew Rasmussen (2-0, 2.19 ERA in 2026 postseason) will be the starting pitcher for the Rays, pitting him against Jacob Misiorowski (1-0, 2.70 ERA) for the Brewers.
Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Brewers a slight edge with a 53.0% win probability over the Rays.
This article offers a complete Brewers vs. Rays prediction, including best bets and picks.
For more, dive into Drew Rasmussen's pitching projections or Jacob Misiorowski's predicted stats.
Brewers vs. Rays prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Wednesday's MLB game between the Brewers and Rays, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Brewers a 53.0% chance of beating the Rays. According to our model, the Rays (+1.5) have a 60.9% chance of covering the run line, while the 6.5-run over/under has a 56.8% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Brewers -1.5 (+133) / Rays +1.5 (-135)
- Moneyline: Brewers -130, Rays +130
- Total: Over/Under 6.5 (+106/-104)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet for Game 5
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Rays +1.5 @ 57¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Rays @ +130 via hard_rock
- Total: Over 6.5 @ 49¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 6.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Wednesday's MLB game between the Rays and Brewers at Tropicana Field is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT
- Venue: Tropicana Field
Conclusion
We predict the Brewers, with a 53.0% win probability, will likely beat the Rays in Wednesday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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