Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +1700 pick for Game 1 of World Series [10/23/2026]

Our MLB home run predictions for Game 1 of the 2026 World Series feature Junior Caminero as the top projected hitter, according to Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.

Friday's HR projections pull from our proprietary home run predictions, which highlight the top home run picks today.

Home run predictions for Game 1

See which hitters join Caminero on today’s list — including one long-shot pick the model rates as value at +1700. &&&&&& PaidContent:

• Junior Caminero (Rays): 17.2% probability
• Jake Bauers (Brewers): 12.1%
• Jackson Chourio (Brewers): 11.4%
• Jonathan Aranda (Rays): 10.2%
• Christian Yelich (Brewers): 10.1%
• Yandy Díaz (Rays): 9.9%
• William Contreras (Brewers): 9.8%
• Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): 8.5%
• Jonny DeLuca (Rays): 8.2%
• David Hamilton (Brewers): 8.0%

Our analysis shows Caminero leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 17.2% chance to go yard, followed by Jake Bauers (12.1%) and Jackson Chourio (11.4%).

Jonathan Aranda and Christian Yelich are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for the World Series? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Friday's home run picks [10/23/2026]

Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, reveals today’s highest-rated home run prop.

David Hamilton (Brewers) to hit a home run

• Probability: 8%
• Odds: +1700
• Edge: 2.4%
• Pitching matchup: Nick Martinez
• More game projections: Rays vs. Brewers prediction (8:00 PM ET)

Ranked among today’s top 10 home run projections, Milwaukee slugger David Hamilton rates as a value play at +1700 with BetRivers, showing a 2.4% edge.

Set to face Nick Martinez in tonight's Rays-Brewers matchup, the data supports Hamilton as one of Friday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For October 23, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Junior Caminero, Jake Bauers and Jackson Chourio projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's David Hamilton who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.4% edge at +1700 odds.

For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section. Our MLB home run predictions for Game 1 of the 2026 World Series feature Junior Caminero as the top projected hitter, according to Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.

Friday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the top home run picks today.

Home run predictions for October 23, 2026

See which hitters join Caminero on today’s list — including one long-shot pick the model rates as value at +1700.

• Junior Caminero (Rays): 17.2% probability
• Jake Bauers (Brewers): 12.1%
• Jackson Chourio (Brewers): 11.4%
• Jonathan Aranda (Rays): 10.2%
• Christian Yelich (Brewers): 10.1%
• Yandy Díaz (Rays): 9.9%
• William Contreras (Brewers): 9.8%
• Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): 8.5%
• Jonny DeLuca (Rays): 8.2%
• David Hamilton (Brewers): 8.0%

Our analysis shows Caminero leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 17.2% chance to go deep, followed by Jake Bauers (12.1%) and Jackson Chourio (11.4%).

Jonathan Aranda and Christian Yelich are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.

Friday's home run picks [10/23/2026]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and evaluating key variables like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.

David Hamilton (Brewers) to hit a home run

• Probability: 8%
• Odds: +1700 at BetRivers
• Edge: 2.4%
• Game: Rays vs. Brewers (8:00 PM ET)
• Pitching matchup: Nick Martinez

Ranked among today’s top 10 home run projections, Milwaukee slugger David Hamilton rates as a value play at +1700 with BetRivers, showing a 2.4% edge.

Set to face Nick Martinez in tonight's Rays-Brewers matchup, the data supports Hamilton as one of Friday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Conclusion

For October 23, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Junior Caminero, Jake Bauers and Jackson Chourio projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's David Hamilton who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.4% edge at +1700 odds.

For additional tools and information on betting safely, visit the Responsible Gambling hub at Dimers.com/responsible-gambling.