Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals prediction: St. Louis favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [7/23/2026]
Get Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals predictions for MLB Thursday.
The St. Louis Cardinals will square off with the Arizona Diamondbacks, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Busch Stadium on Thursday, starting at 5:15 PM ET.
The Cardinals will send Michael McGreevy (4-7, 2.92 ERA) to the mound, up against Brandon Pfaadt (4-1, 4.58 ERA) for the Diamondbacks.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Cardinals a slight edge with a 52.3% win probability over the Diamondbacks.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals matchup, including best bets and picks.
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model gives the Cardinals a 52.3% chance of defeating the Diamondbacks.
According to our model, the Diamondbacks (+1.5) have a 63.8% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 51.0% chance of staying under,.
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals odds [7/23/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Diamondbacks | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-178) | -1.5 (+178) |
| Moneyline | +110 | -113 |
| Total | o8.5 (+122) | u8.5 (-133) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Cardinals -1.5 | +178 |
| Moneyline | Diamondbacks | +110 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | +122 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB game between the Cardinals and Diamondbacks at Busch Stadium is scheduled to start at 5:15 PM ET.
- Who: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals
- Date: Thursday, July 23, 2026
- Time: 5:15 PM ET/2:15PM PT
- Venue: Busch Stadium
Conclusion
We predict the Cardinals, with a 52.3% win probability, will likely beat the Diamondbacks in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
