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Read Article Diamondbacks vs. Rays prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [6/28/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks in MLB action at Tropicana Field on Sunday, starting at 1:40 PM ET.
Drew Rasmussen (6-4, 2.62 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Rays, up against Merrill Kelly (5-7, 5.71 ERA) for the Diamondbacks.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model predicts the Rays as the most likely winner of the Diamondbacks vs. Rays game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Diamondbacks vs. Rays prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's MLB matchup between the Diamondbacks and Rays, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Rays a 59.8% chance of defeating the Diamondbacks.
According to our model, the Diamondbacks (+1.5) have a 57.5% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 57.0% chance of going over,.
Diamondbacks vs. Rays odds [6/28/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Diamondbacks | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-130) | -1.5 (+110) |
| Moneyline | +168 | -198 |
| Total | o7.5 (-117) | u7.5 (-102) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Diamondbacks vs. Rays picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Diamondbacks +1.5 | -130 |
| Moneyline | Diamondbacks | +168 |
| Total | Over 7.5 | -117 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Diamondbacks vs. Rays game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB game between the Rays and Diamondbacks at Tropicana Field is scheduled to begin at 1:40 PM ET.
- Who: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Date: Sunday, June 28, 2026
- Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40AM PT
- Venue: Tropicana Field
Conclusion
We predict the Rays, with a 59.8% win probability, will likely beat the Diamondbacks in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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