Astros vs. Yankees preview: why the data points to an offensive surge in Houston

The Houston Astros and New York Yankees take the field for the second game of their three-game series on Wednesday, August 26th at 7:05 PM ET, one night after a back-and-forth 9-7 Astros win that saw a whopping 24 combined hits and multiple blown leads.

The Dimers model found an MLB best bet on the Over 8.5 in that game with a 58.8% probability, and tonight's matchup carries another value bet in what shapes up to be a key game for both sides, based on our Astros vs. Yankees prediction.

Yankees vs. Astros matchup details

Why the data favors the Over in Yankees vs. Astros

1. A division race squeezing both bullpens

Houston is in the middle of an AL West sprint. Dimers had the Astros at just a 15.7% probability to win the division at the All-Star break (fair odds of +536 against best odds of +650 at the time). They've since moved to a half-game lead at a 50.5% probability (+190), even while in the midst of a 3-6 stretch that has stressed their pitching staff.

The Yankees are chasing their own goal, trying to close the AL East gap and hold off a surging Red Sox team on the other end. New York has won six of its last eight games, and a four-game series in Boston looms right after this one.

Both bullpens arrive taxed. New York's pen threw heavy innings in Tuesday's 9-7 loss, and Elmer Rodríguez (0-2, 4.76 ERA) is a soft matchup for a Houston lineup that's anchored by the AL MVP favorite.

That combination of tired arms on both sides, plus a below-average starter, is the baseline case for extra runs.

2. Yordan Alvarez, Ben Rice and the home run race

Yordan Alvarez (36 HR) and Ben Rice (34 HR) entered this series within two homers of each other and in the top tier of the league, though both have cooled slightly in August; Alvarez has just 1 home run this month, Rice has 3.

Perhaps most relevant for tonight's top-projected home run hitters by the Dimers model, both are lefties who have hit right-handed pitching well all season, and both starters, Rodríguez and Lambert, are right-handed.

Beyond the two sluggers, Dimers' projected Yankees-Astros matchup data shows a lineup stacked with high upside.

Five of the seven hitters in that table carry at least a 1-in-7 shot at a home run tonight, and every one is projected at or above above a coin flip to reach base at least once. For full projections in this game and others, see our MLB player projections hub.

3. The head-to-head trend backs it up

This is as much of a modern-day rivalry as we get in baseball and both teams always show up when they play each other.

Over 8.5 runs has cashed in 7 of the last 10 Yankees-Astros meetings, and the three unders came in at 8 runs exactly, signaling that there is always offense to be found in this series, and five of the games that went over saw 12 or more combined runs.

Dimers' Astros-Yankees prediction and best value

Putting the three threads together - important stretch games for both sides, favorable projection data in a good hitting matchup, and a scoring history that skews firmly to the over - it's easy to see why our model is in favor of another high-scoring game between these rivals.

Find the Over 8.5 in Yankees-Astros with a 57.0% probability and 3.9% edge against best odds of -113 on Novig, or see the odds on other books with the Dimers App. 

Our best bet in Astros-Yankees from the Dimers App.