Orioles vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [9/14/2026]

The New York Mets will take on the Baltimore Orioles in MLB action at Citi Field on Monday, commencing at 7:10 PM ET.

Jonah Tong (2-1, 4.80 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Mets, up against Brandon Young (9-4, 3.71 ERA) for the Orioles.

Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Mets as the most likely winner in this Orioles vs. Mets prediction.

This article offers further insights into Monday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Orioles vs. Mets prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Monday's MLB game between the Orioles and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Mets a 58.8% chance of beating the Orioles. According to our model, the Orioles (+1.5) have a 59.1% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 50.8% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Orioles +1.5 (-163) / Mets -1.5 (+167)
• Moneyline: Orioles +133, Mets -135
• Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+113/-113)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Mets -1.5 @ 37¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Mets @ 57¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 8.5 @ 47¢ via Polymarket

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Monday's MLB game between the Mets and Orioles at Citi Field is scheduled to commence at 7:10 PM ET.

• Who: Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets
• Date: Monday, September 14, 2026
• Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10PM PT
• Venue: Citi Field

Conclusion

We predict the Mets, with a 58.8% win probability, will likely beat the Orioles in Monday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.