Red Sox vs. Marlins prediction: Why Boston is favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [8/24/2026]

The Miami Marlins will face the Boston Red Sox, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at loanDepot park on Monday, starting at 6:40 PM ET.

Sandy Alcantara (13-8, 3.46 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Marlins, up against Ranger Suarez (5-3, 3.42 ERA) for the Red Sox.

Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Red Sox a slight edge with a 53.8% win probability over the Marlins.

This article offers a complete Red Sox vs. Marlins prediction, including best bets and picks.

For more, dive into Ranger Suarez' projected pitching stats.

Red Sox vs. Marlins prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's MLB game between the Red Sox and Marlins, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Red Sox a 53.8% chance of beating the Marlins.

According to our model, the Marlins (+1.5) have a 58.5% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 53.5% chance of going over.

Red Sox vs. Marlins odds [8/24/2026]

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 (+150) / Marlins +1.5 (-150)
• Moneyline: Red Sox -117, Marlins +117

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Red Sox vs. Marlins picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Red Sox -1.5 @ +150 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Red Sox @ -117 via Novig
• Total: Over 7.5 @ +117 via Novig

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Red Sox vs. Marlins game-day updates and essential details

Monday's MLB matchup between the Marlins and Red Sox at loanDepot park is scheduled to begin at 6:40 PM ET.

• Who: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins
• Date: Monday, August 24, 2026
• Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
• Venue: loanDepot park

Conclusion

We predict the Red Sox, with a 53.8% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Monday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.