Red Sox vs. Marlins prediction: Why Boston is favored to win Wednesday's MLB matchup [8/26/2026]

The Miami Marlins and Boston redsox are scheduled to meet in MLB action at loanDepot park on Wednesday, starting at 6:40 PM ET.

The Marlins will send Ryan Gusto (0-3, 4.37 ERA) to the mound, while the Red Sox are going with Sonny Gray (16-3, 2.79 ERA).

Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Red Sox as the most likely winner in this Red Sox vs. Marlins prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

For more, dive into Sonny Gray's projected pitching stats.

Red Sox vs. Marlins prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's MLB game between the Red Sox and Marlins, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Red Sox a 55.4% chance of beating the Marlins.

According to our model, the Marlins (+1.5) have a 57.0% chance of covering the run line, while the 7.5-run over/under has a 57.6% chance of going over.

Red Sox vs. Marlins odds [8/26/2026]

We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 (+138) / Marlins +1.5 (-138)
• Moneyline: Red Sox -122, Marlins +122

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Red Sox vs. Marlins picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Red Sox -1.5 @ +138 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Red Sox @ -122 via Polymarket
• Total: Over 7.5 @ -104 via Novig

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Red Sox vs. Marlins game-day updates and essential details

Wednesday's MLB action between the Marlins and Red Sox at loanDepot park is scheduled to begin at 6:40 PM ET.

• Who: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins
• Date: Wednesday, August 26, 2026
• Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
• Venue: loanDepot park

Conclusion

We predict the Red Sox, with a 55.4% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Wednesday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.