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Read Article Red Sox vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [7/10/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets predictions for MLB Friday.
MLB action continues on Friday at 7:15 PM ET as the Boston Red Sox lock horns with the New York Mets at Citi Field.
Nolan McLean (6-5, 3.73 ERA) will get the ball for the Mets, up against Sonny Gray (10-1, 2.61 ERA) for the Red Sox.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model predicts the Mets as the most likely winner of the Red Sox vs. Mets game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Red Sox vs. Mets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's MLB game between the Red Sox and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Mets a 57.3% chance of beating the Red Sox.
According to our model, the Red Sox (+1.5) have a 60.3% chance of covering the run line, while the 7.5-run over/under has a 54.8% chance of going over,.
Red Sox vs. Mets odds [7/10/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Red Sox | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-163) | -1.5 (+156) |
| Moneyline | +133 | -135 |
| Total | o7.5 (+100) | u7.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Red Sox vs. Mets picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets -1.5 | novig+156 |
| Moneyline | Mets | novig-135 |
| Total | Over 7.5 | polymarket+100 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Red Sox vs. Mets game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Red Sox at Citi Field is scheduled to commence at 7:15 PM ET.
- Who: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets
- Date: Friday, July 10, 2026
- Time: 7:15 PM ET/4:15PM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 57.3% win probability, will likely beat the Red Sox in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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