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Read Article Red Sox vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [7/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets predictions for MLB Saturday.
The New York Mets will take on the Boston Red Sox in MLB action at Citi Field on Saturday, beginning at 4:10 PM ET.
Freddy Peralta (5-7, 4.68 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Mets, pitting him against Eduardo Rivera (0-0, 0.00 ERA) for the Red Sox.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Mets as the most likely winner of the Red Sox vs. Mets game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Red Sox vs. Mets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's MLB matchup between the Red Sox and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Mets a 59.4% chance of defeating the Red Sox.
According to our model, the Red Sox (+1.5) have a 57.0% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 58.0% chance of going over,.
Red Sox vs. Mets odds [7/11/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Red Sox | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-156) | -1.5 (+153) |
| Moneyline | +133 | -130 |
| Total | o7.5 (-108) | u7.5 (+108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Red Sox vs. Mets picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets -1.5 | novig+153 |
| Moneyline | Mets | novig-130 |
| Total | Over 7.5 | novig-108 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Red Sox vs. Mets game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's MLB game between the Mets and Red Sox at Citi Field is scheduled to start at 4:10 PM ET.
- Who: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets
- Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026
- Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10PM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 59.4% win probability, will likely beat the Red Sox in Saturday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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