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Read Article Red Sox vs. Pirates prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [8/16/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Pittsburgh Pirates will face the Boston Red Sox, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at PNC Park on Sunday, beginning at 1:35 PM ET.
Lake Bachar (1-2, 3.98 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Pirates, while the Red Sox are going with Patrick Sandoval (1-1, 3.30 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 53.7% win probability over the Red Sox.
This article offers a complete Red Sox vs. Pirates prediction, including best bets and picks.
Red Sox vs. Pirates prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's MLB game between the Red Sox and Pirates, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Pirates a 53.7% chance of beating the Red Sox.
According to our model, the Pirates (+1.5) have a 65.0% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 51.2% chance of going over,.
Red Sox vs. Pirates odds [8/16/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 (+156) / Pirates +1.5 (-156)
- Moneyline: Red Sox -104, Pirates +104
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Red Sox vs. Pirates picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Pirates +1.5 @ -156 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Pirates @ +104 via BetRivers
- Total: Over 8.5 @ +111 via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Pirates to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Red Sox vs. Pirates game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB matchup between the Pirates and Red Sox at PNC Park is scheduled to start at 1:35 PM ET.
- Who: Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date: Sunday, August 16, 2026
- Time: 1:35 PM ET/10:35AM PT
- Venue: PNC Park
Conclusion
We predict the Pirates, with a 53.7% win probability, will likely beat the Red Sox in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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