Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction: Why Boston is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [8/13/2026]
Get Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays predictions for MLB Thursday.
The Toronto Blue Jays will face the Boston Red Sox, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Rogers Centre on Thursday, commencing at 3:07 PM ET.
Max Scherzer (1-4, 7.25 ERA) will get the ball for the Blue Jays, while the Red Sox have opted for Payton Tolle (7-6, 3.20 ERA).
Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Red Sox a slight edge with a 53.3% win probability over the Blue Jays.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Red Sox vs. Blue Jays matchup, including best bets and picks.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Red Sox a 53.3% chance of defeating the Blue Jays.
According to our model, the Blue Jays (+1.5) have a 58.7% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 58.7% chance of going over,.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds [8/13/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 (+125) / Blue Jays +1.5 (-127)
- Moneyline: Red Sox -133, Blue Jays +138
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Blue Jays +1.5 @ -127 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Blue Jays @ +138 via Bet365
- Total: Over 7.5 @ -108 via Novig
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB game between the Blue Jays and Red Sox at Rogers Centre is scheduled to start at 3:07 PM ET.
- Who: Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
- Date: Thursday, August 13, 2026
- Time: 3:07 PM ET/12:07PM PT
- Venue: Rogers Centre
Conclusion
We predict the Red Sox, with a 53.3% win probability, will likely beat the Blue Jays in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
