Cubs vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [8/24/2026]

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs are scheduled to meet in MLB action at Chase Field on Monday, starting at 9:40 PM ET.

Merrill Kelly (8-11, 5.37 ERA) will start on the mound for the Diamondbacks, pitting him against Kevin Gausman (6-11, 4.58 ERA) for the Cubs.

Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Cubs a slight edge with a 54.1% win probability over the Diamondbacks.

This article offers a complete Cubs vs. Diamondbacks prediction, including best bets and picks.

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's MLB game between the Cubs and Diamondbacks, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Cubs a 54.1% chance of defeating the Diamondbacks.

According to our model, the Diamondbacks (+1.5) have a 57.2% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 62.2% chance of going over.

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks odds [8/24/2026]

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Cubs -1.5 (+120) / Diamondbacks +1.5 (-122)
• Moneyline: Cubs -133, Diamondbacks +130

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Diamondbacks +1.5 @ -122 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Diamondbacks @ +130 via Bet365
• Total: Over 8.5 @ -122 via Polymarket

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks game-day updates and essential details

Monday's MLB matchup between the Diamondbacks and Cubs at Chase Field is scheduled to begin at 9:40 PM ET.

• Who: Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
• Date: Monday, August 24, 2026
• Time: 9:40 PM ET/6:40PM PT
• Venue: Chase Field

Conclusion

We predict the Cubs, with a 54.1% win probability, will likely beat the Diamondbacks in Monday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.