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Read Article Cubs vs. Orioles prediction: Baltimore favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [7/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles predictions for MLB Thursday.
The Baltimore Orioles will take on the Chicago Cubs, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Thursday, beginning at 1:35 PM ET.
Trevor Rogers (6-7, 4.70 ERA) will start for the Orioles, up against David Peterson (4-7, 6.75 ERA) for the Cubs.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Orioles a slight edge with a 52.6% win probability over the Cubs.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Cubs vs. Orioles matchup, including best bets and picks.
Cubs vs. Orioles prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB game between the Cubs and Orioles, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Orioles a 52.6% chance of defeating the Cubs.
According to our model, the Cubs (+1.5) have a 63.3% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 9.5 runs has a 55.5% chance of going over,.
Cubs vs. Orioles odds [7/9/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cubs | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-167) | -1.5 (+163) |
| Moneyline | +115 | -117 |
| Total | o9.5 (-108) | u9.5 (+106) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cubs vs. Orioles picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Cubs +1.5 | polymarket-167 |
| Moneyline | Cubs | novig+115 |
| Total | Over 9.5 | novig-108 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Cubs vs. Orioles game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB action between the Orioles and Cubs at Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled to begin at 1:35 PM ET.
- Who: Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles
- Date: Thursday, July 9, 2026
- Time: 1:35 PM ET/10:35AM PT
- Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Conclusion
We predict the Orioles, with a 52.6% win probability, will likely beat the Cubs in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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