Cubs vs. Reds prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [9/19/2026]

The Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs will meet in MLB action at Great American Ball Park on Saturday, starting at 6:40 PM ET.

Nick Lodolo (3-5, 5.12 ERA) will start for the Reds, while the Cubs are going with Matthew Boyd (8-5, 4.16 ERA).

Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Cubs as the most likely winner in this Cubs vs. Reds prediction.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Cubs vs. Reds prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's MLB game between the Cubs and Reds, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Cubs a 55.0% chance of defeating the Reds. According to our model, the Reds (+1.5) have a 57.1% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 9.5 runs has a 50.6% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Cubs -1.5 (+117) / Reds +1.5 (-122)
• Moneyline: Cubs -133, Reds +130
• Total: Over/Under 9.5 (+108/-111)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Reds +1.5 @ 55¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Reds @ 43¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 9.5 @ 48¢ via Novig

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Saturday's MLB matchup between the Reds and Cubs at Great American Ball Park is scheduled to start at 6:40 PM ET.

• Who: Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
• Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
• Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
• Venue: Great American Ball Park

Conclusion

We predict the Cubs, with a 55.0% win probability, will likely beat the Reds in Saturday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.