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Read Article Cubs vs. Reds prediction: Why Cincinnati is favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [7/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds predictions for MLB Saturday.
MLB action continues on Saturday at 7:10 PM ET as the Chicago Cubs take on the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park.
The Reds will start Nick Lodolo (3-2, 4.68 ERA), while the Cubs have opted for Javier Assad (6-1, 4.15 ERA).
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Reds a slight edge with a 51.4% win probability over the Cubs.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's Cubs vs. Reds matchup, including best bets and picks.
Cubs vs. Reds prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's MLB game between the Cubs and Reds, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Reds a 51.4% chance of beating the Cubs.
According to our model, the Cubs (+1.5) have a 64.4% chance of covering the run line, while the 9.5-run over/under has a 52.0% chance of going over,.
Cubs vs. Reds odds [7/11/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cubs | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-200) | -1.5 (+165) |
| Moneyline | +104 | -107 |
| Total | o9.5 (-104) | u9.5 (+102) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cubs vs. Reds picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Reds -1.5 | polymarket+165 |
| Moneyline | Reds | bet_rivers_in-107 |
| Total | Over 9.5 | -104 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Cubs vs. Reds game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's MLB action between the Reds and Cubs at Great American Ball Park is scheduled to begin at 7:10 PM ET.
- Who: Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026
- Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10PM PT
- Venue: Great American Ball Park
Conclusion
We predict the Reds, with a 51.4% win probability, will likely beat the Cubs in Saturday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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