Sep 10, 2026
Pirates vs. White Sox prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [9/10/2026]
Read Article Cubs vs. Marlins prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [9/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Add Dimers on Google 
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 59.9% win probability for the Cubs at loanDepot park.
The Miami Marlins and Chicago Cubs are scheduled to meet in MLB action at loanDepot park on Friday, starting at 7:10 PM ET.
The Marlins will have Janson Junk (6-8, 4.11 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Cubs have opted for Shota Imanaga (8-10, 4.01 ERA).
Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Cubs as the most likely winner in this Cubs vs. Marlins prediction.
This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Cubs vs. Marlins prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's MLB game between the Cubs and Marlins, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Cubs a 59.9% chance of defeating the Marlins.
According to our model, the Marlins (+1.5) have a 52.8% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 52.6% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Cubs -1.5 (+111) / Marlins +1.5 (-113)
- Moneyline: Cubs -156, Marlins +156
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+108/-113)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Marlins +1.5 @ 53¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Marlins @ 39¢ via Polymarket
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 48¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Friday's MLB action between the Marlins and Cubs at loanDepot park is scheduled to begin at 7:10 PM ET.
- Who: Chicago Cubs vs. Miami Marlins
- Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
- Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10PM PT
- Venue: loanDepot park
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 59.9% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
Advertiser disclosure
