Cubs vs. Brewers prediction: Why Milwaukee is favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [9/7/2026]
Dimers' simulation model projects a 51.7% win probability for the Brewers at American Family Field.

The Milwaukee Brewers will square off with the Chicago Cubs, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at American Family Field on Monday, starting at 2:10 PM ET.
Robert Gasser (4-5, 4.57 ERA) will start on the mound for the Brewers, while the Cubs are going with Matthew Boyd (8-3, 4.05 ERA).
Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Brewers a slight edge with a 51.7% win probability over the Cubs.
This article offers a complete Cubs vs. Brewers prediction, including best bets and picks.
Cubs vs. Brewers prediction and odds
Our famous predictive model gives the Brewers a 51.7% chance of defeating the Cubs.
According to our model, the Cubs (+1.5) have a 64.3% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 51.7% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Cubs +1.5 (-178) / Brewers -1.5 (+178)
- Moneyline: Cubs +113, Brewers -117
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+100/-102)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Cubs +1.5 @ 64¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Cubs @ 47¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 8.5 @ +100 via FanDuel
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Monday's MLB matchup between the Brewers and Cubs at American Family Field is scheduled to commence at 2:10 PM ET.
- Who: Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
- Date: Monday, September 7, 2026
- Time: 2:10 PM ET/11:10AM PT
- Venue: American Family Field
Conclusion
We predict the Brewers, with a 51.7% win probability, will likely beat the Cubs in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.




