Cubs vs. Pirates prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [7/24/2026]
Get Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates predictions for MLB Friday.
The Pittsburgh Pirates will square off with the Chicago Cubs, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at PNC Park on Friday, commencing at 6:40 PM ET.
Jared Jones (2-1, 4.05 ERA) will get the ball for the Pirates, while the Cubs will counter with Matthew Boyd (6-1, 4.15 ERA).
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 52.9% win probability over the Cubs.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's Cubs vs. Pirates matchup, including best bets and picks.
Cubs vs. Pirates prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model gives the Pirates a 52.9% chance of beating the Cubs.
According to our model, the Cubs (+1.5) have a 64.4% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 56.8% chance of going over,.
Cubs vs. Pirates odds [7/24/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cubs | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-190) | -1.5 (+178) |
| Moneyline | +108 | -113 |
| Total | o7.5 (-117) | u7.5 (+113) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cubs vs. Pirates picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Pirates -1.5 | +178 |
| Moneyline | Pirates | -113 |
| Total | Over 7.5 | -117 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Cubs vs. Pirates game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB matchup between the Pirates and Cubs at PNC Park is scheduled to commence at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date: Friday, July 24, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: PNC Park
Conclusion
We predict the Pirates, with a 52.9% win probability, will likely beat the Cubs in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
