Cubs vs. Nationals prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [8/13/2026]

The Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs will lock horns in MLB action at Nationals Park on Thursday, starting at 4:05 PM ET.

The Nationals will have Cade Cavalli (9-5, 3.57 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Cubs will counter with Kevin Gausman (6-10, 4.29 ERA).

Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Cubs as the most likely winner in this Cubs vs. Nationals prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Cubs vs. Nationals prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Cubs and Nationals, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Cubs a 56.6% chance of defeating the Nationals.

According to our model, the Nationals (+1.5) have a 55.1% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 57.5% chance of going over,.

Cubs vs. Nationals odds [8/13/2026]

We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Cubs -1.5 (+117) / Nationals +1.5 (-120)
• Moneyline: Cubs -138, Nationals +138

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Cubs vs. Nationals picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Nationals +1.5 @ -120 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Nationals @ +138 via Novig
• Total: Over 8.5 @ -108 via Novig

According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Cubs vs. Nationals game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's MLB matchup between the Nationals and Cubs at Nationals Park is scheduled to commence at 4:05 PM ET.

• Who: Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals
• Date: Thursday, August 13, 2026
• Time: 4:05 PM ET/1:05PM PT
• Venue: Nationals Park

Conclusion

We predict the Cubs, with a 56.6% win probability, will likely beat the Nationals in Thursday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.