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Read Article White Sox vs. Astros prediction: Houston favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [9/3/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 60.5% win probability for the Astros at Daikin Park.
MLB action continues on Thursday at 2:10 PM ET as the Chicago White Sox take on the Houston Astros at Daikin Park.
The Astros will have Hunter Brown (4-3, 3.33 ERA) as their starting pitcher, up against Luis Castillo (4-10, 5.31 ERA) for the White Sox.
Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Astros as the most likely winner in this White Sox vs. Astros prediction.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
White Sox vs. Astros prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB matchup between the White Sox and Astros, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Astros a 60.5% chance of beating the White Sox.
According to our model, the White Sox (+1.5) have a 56.6% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 52.6% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: White Sox +1.5 (-138) / Astros -1.5 (+138)
- Moneyline: White Sox +156, Astros -155
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+102/+100)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Astros -1.5 @ 42¢ via Polymarket
- Moneyline: White Sox @ 39¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Thursday's MLB action between the Astros and White Sox at Daikin Park is scheduled to start at 2:10 PM ET.
- Who: Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
- Date: Thursday, September 3, 2026
- Time: 2:10 PM ET/11:10AM PT
- Venue: Daikin Park
Conclusion
We predict the Astros, with a 60.5% win probability, will likely beat the White Sox in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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