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Read Article Guardians vs. Twins prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [7/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins predictions for MLB Thursday.
The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians will lock horns in MLB action at Target Field on Thursday, starting at 1:40 PM ET.
The Twins will send Bailey Ober (6-3, 4.59 ERA) to the mound, pitting him against Gavin Williams (9-4, 3.89 ERA) for the Guardians.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Twins a slight edge with a 50.9% win probability over the Guardians.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Guardians vs. Twins matchup, including best bets and picks.
Guardians vs. Twins prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's MLB game between the Guardians and Twins, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Twins a 50.9% chance of defeating the Guardians.
According to our model, the Twins (+1.5) have a 61.9% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 56.7% chance of going over,.
Guardians vs. Twins odds [7/9/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Guardians | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+144) | +1.5 (-147) |
| Moneyline | -115 | +113 |
| Total | o8.5 (-104) | u8.5 (+102) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Guardians vs. Twins picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Twins +1.5 | polymarket-147 |
| Moneyline | Twins | polymarket+113 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | novig-104 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Guardians vs. Twins game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB matchup between the Twins and Guardians at Target Field is scheduled to begin at 1:40 PM ET.
- Who: Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins
- Date: Thursday, July 9, 2026
- Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40AM PT
- Venue: Target Field
Conclusion
We predict the Twins, with a 50.9% win probability, will likely beat the Guardians in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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