Tigers vs. Pirates prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [8/17/2026]
Get Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates predictions for MLB Monday.
The Pittsburgh Pirates will face the Detroit Tigers, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at PNC Park on Monday, beginning at 7:05 PM ET.
The Pirates will have Carmen Mlodzinski (6-5, 3.79 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Tigers are going with Framber Valdez (7-8, 4.26 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 51.0% win probability over the Tigers.
This article offers a complete Tigers vs. Pirates prediction, including best bets and picks.
Tigers vs. Pirates prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Pirates a 51.0% chance of beating the Tigers.
According to our model, the Pirates (+1.5) have a 63.8% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 54.5% chance of staying under,.
Tigers vs. Pirates odds [8/17/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Tigers -1.5 (+156) / Pirates +1.5 (-160)
- Moneyline: Tigers -104, Pirates +107
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Tigers vs. Pirates picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Pirates +1.5 @ -160 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Pirates @ +107 via Bet365
- Total: Under 8.5 @ -117 via Novig
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Pirates to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Tigers vs. Pirates game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB game between the Pirates and Tigers at PNC Park is scheduled to begin at 7:05 PM ET.
- Who: Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date: Monday, August 17, 2026
- Time: 7:05 PM ET/4:05PM PT
- Venue: PNC Park
Conclusion
We predict the Pirates, with a 51.0% win probability, will likely beat the Tigers in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
